UAE Consumers Anticipate a More Affordable Ramadan as Global Commodity Prices Ease

Food & FMCG

UAE Consumers Anticipate a More Affordable Ramadan as Global Commodity Prices Ease

As the holy month of Ramadan approaches, consumers across the UAE and the wider GCC are set to benefit from a wave of easing commodity prices, bringing the prospect of a more affordable festive season. Global supply improvements have softened prices for several key staples, including wheat, sugar, coffee, and cocoa — ingredients central to Ramadan meals and traditions.

Retailers across the region typically experience a surge in demand ahead of Ramadan. However, global markets this year appear to be driven more by strengthening supply chains than by seasonal consumption patterns, signaling that this Ramadan could be less costly than the previous one.

Wheat, a vital staple in many Emirati and regional dishes such as harees and khubz, has seen a modest 5% year-on-year decline. Futures are currently trading around $5.6 per bushel, retreating from a recent high earlier this month when cold weather in the U.S. Plains briefly raised crop concerns. Improved weather and robust harvest forecasts from major producers — including Russia, India, and Argentina — have stabilized global supply expectations. Russian forecasts stand at 85.9 to 91 million tons, while India has approved the export of 2.5 million tons following a strong harvest.

Sugar prices have recorded an even steeper decline, down over 10% in the past month and nearly 35% year-on-year, now trading at approximately 13.46 U.S. cents per pound. Strong export flows from Brazil, supported by favorable weather, have bolstered global availability. Meanwhile, India, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, recently increased its export quota by 500,000 tons to further stabilize the market.

Arabica coffee — known locally as gahwa and a central feature of Ramadan gatherings — has also seen relief in pricing. At around $2.80 per pound, prices have dropped 27% compared to last year, marking their lowest point since July 2025. The decline follows Brazil’s improved rainfall and projections of a robust 2026/27 harvest. National supply agency Conab expects output to reach 66.2 million bags, with private analysts forecasting even higher figures. However, limited supply from the current season may slightly temper retail discounts.

Cocoa has experienced the sharpest correction among all major commodities, tumbling to around $3,200 per tonne — its lowest since mid-2023 and a staggering 69% drop year-on-year. The fall reflects a strong recovery in global supply, with improved weather conditions in West Africa and higher yields across South America. Rising inventory levels on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) suggest ample global availability. For UAE consumers, this trend is especially relevant given the continued popularity of chocolate-based Ramadan desserts and the enduring craze for the viral “Dubai Chocolate.”

Commenting on the trend, Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro, said: “Global markets are entering 2026 with improving production outlooks and stronger supply visibility. While short-term volatility can’t be ruled out, the fundamentals indicate that supply chains are well-positioned to handle seasonal Ramadan demand.”

North added that while food producers often secure their raw materials in advance — meaning retail prices may take time to reflect market shifts — the easing of input costs supports the likelihood of a comparatively cheaper Ramadan this year, provided the softer trends continue.