Technology

Janus Henderson Investors CEO Ali Dibadj has identified geopolitical realignment, artificial intelligence-driven innovation and the sustained cost of capital as the defining investment themes shaping global markets in 2026.

In his annual outlook, Dibadj said the structural macro forces tracked by the global active asset manager remain largely intact, despite rapid economic and technological change. However, he noted that the way these forces influence markets is evolving, creating new risks and opportunities for investors while continuing to provide a framework for portfolio construction.

Geopolitical risk and regionalisation

Dibadj said the impact of recent election cycles and policy shifts became more evident in 2025 and is expected to intensify in 2026 as governments increasingly pursue national economic interests. Measures such as tariffs and strategic trade policies are likely to affect a broad range of sectors, including technology, energy and defence.

He noted that companies operating in areas such as semiconductors, rare earths, social media and defence are now often assessed through a national security lens, adding a new dimension to investment analysis. According to Dibadj, political considerations have become an increasingly important factor in distinguishing long-term winners from losers in global markets.

AI-driven innovation across the economy

Artificial intelligence continues to be a major investment theme, with Dibadj describing it as a broad-based “megatrend” extending well beyond technology companies. He highlighted that changing work patterns and rapid adoption of digital tools across generations are accelerating AI’s integration into everyday life and business operations.

Global AI spending is projected to reach US$375 billion in 2025 and rise to US$500 billion by 2026. Dibadj said AI-led productivity gains have the potential to support economic growth across multiple sectors, with healthcare already seeing meaningful innovation driven by the technology.

He emphasised the importance of active research and company engagement to understand AI’s financially material impacts, including environmental considerations linked to increased power demand and potential social implications from workforce disruption.

Fixed income, private credit and the cost of capital

While interest rates have begun to decline from their recent peaks, Dibadj said the cost of capital is expected to remain structurally higher than levels seen over the past decade. This shift, he noted, is reshaping investment markets as access to capital becomes more selective.

Higher capital costs are widening the gap between stronger and weaker companies, creating opportunities for active managers to identify potential outperformers through detailed analysis. Dibadj also said the environment is supportive of fixed income investing, noting that yields have returned as a meaningful source of return.

For 2026, he highlighted opportunities across a broad range of fixed income strategies, including multi-sector approaches, securitised assets, short-duration strategies and emerging market debt. He also pointed to growing opportunities in private credit, particularly in asset-backed finance and emerging market private credit, rather than traditional direct lending.

A client-centric approach to asset management

Dibadj concluded that evolving market conditions require asset managers to remain focused on client needs. He said Janus Henderson continues to invest in transformation across its product offering, technology and talent, with a growing share of its strategies focused on new and expanding areas.

He added that staying ahead of structural change will be critical to delivering long-term outcomes for investors in 2026 and beyond.

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