Global Trade Withstands Tariff Turbulence: DHL Global Connectedness Tracker 2025 Reveals Resilient Growth Despite Policy Shifts
Global trade remains robust despite escalating U.S. tariffs reaching levels not seen since the 1930s, according to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker 2025 Special Update, produced in collaboration with New York University’s Stern School of Business. The report provides the first systematic analysis of how global trade and investment are adapting to U.S. trade policy changes under President Trump’s second term, drawing on over 20 million data points from more than 25 sources.
Global Trade Defies Tariff Pressures
The Tracker reveals that global trade grew faster in the first half of 2025 than in any comparable period since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound. While U.S. tariffs have dampened growth projections, global trade continues to expand at an annualized rate of 2.5% from 2025 to 2029, matching the pace of the previous decade.
“Despite all the headwinds, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker highlights the enduring strength of global trade,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Trade barriers do not serve the world’s best interests. But we must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other.”
Regional Trade Outlooks
The report shows that North America faces the steepest trade slowdown, with forecasts dropping from 2.7% in January to 1.5% by September 2025. Meanwhile, South & Central America and the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) have experienced upward revisions in trade forecasts, driven by minimal tariff impacts and robust regional growth.
“In a time of evolving global trade dynamics, the Middle East & North Africa stands out as one of the few regions with upgraded growth forecasts,” said Abdulaziz Busbate, CEO of DHL Express MENA. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt continue to demonstrate resilience and strategic importance within DHL’s Global Tailwinds initiative.”
Trade Patterns and Corporate Resilience
China has successfully offset declining exports to the U.S. with increased shipments to ASEAN countries, Africa, and the EU, demonstrating strong diversification in its export strategy. Meanwhile, corporate data indicates no significant withdrawal from international markets, with cross-border M&A activity remaining steady and globalization levels holding close to their all-time high at 25%.
Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, noted:
“The latest data show companies managing the risks and opportunities of a connected world rather than retreating to within countries or regions. Globalization has not gone into reverse.”
Globalization Holds Firm
The Tracker also dispels the notion of regionalization. The average distance traded goods travel rose to a record 5,000 kilometers, while intra-regional trade fell to an all-time low of 51%. Despite the highest number of active global conflicts since World War II, the world economy remains largely interconnected, with no major split between geopolitical blocs.
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker 2025 Special Update concludes that while tariffs and geopolitical tensions pose challenges, global trade, capital, information, and people flows remain resilient—reinforcing the strength of globalization in an increasingly complex economic landscape.
