Business

• Greater fiscal ease in India undoubtedly improves economic outlook as economic activity regains pre-pandemic levels
• Improved oil revenues, improved vaccination schemes and a relaxation of social restrictions improves confidence in the Middle East region
• Western Europe, Africa, and the Middle East show more modest increases in confidence, and advanced vaccination schemes boost confidence in Egypt
• However, fear indices reflecting continued anxiety about customers and suppliers going out of business remain. Near-term cost concerns show an increase, reflecting higher commodity prices and other costs as the global economy recovers

A new Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) of 2021 Q1 by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (Institute of Management Accountants) found the largest jump in global confidence in the last decade, with the most positive results that came up from North America.

The GECS, the largest ordinary economic survey of more than 1,000 senior accountants and finance professionals from around the world, has constantly captured the true scale of the global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic, tracking the drop-in confidence since the starting and a new outlook in confidence triggered by the combined effects of vaccines and the fiscal stimulus.

You can read the full report here or at: https://www.imanet.org/insights-and-trends/global-economic-conditions-survey?ssopc=1.

The Q1 2021 GECS has recorded the biggest jump in global confidence since the survey began 10 years ago. The GECS also shows an important improvement between the 2020 Q4 survey attended last December and the 2021 Q1 survey in March.

The authors note that the regulatory confirmation of several highly effective vaccines against COVID-19 and the subsequent introduction of vaccination plans in many countries has put a permanent solution to the health crisis within reach. Activity symbolises covering orders, capital spending, and employment all increased to some degree in the first quarter of this year closely mirroring the level of confidence in the last quarter of 2019 before the pandemic struck.

Hanadi Khalife, senior director of MEA & India operations at IMA, said, The Q1 GECS report paints a much brighter picture than its immediate predecessor, with confidence rising by the most in the history of the survey. The approval and deployment of several effective vaccines has dramatically improved the prospects of an end to the COVID crisis. The findings paint a hopeful picture for further recovery in the global economy into the second half of 2021.

Having suffered the biggest recession for several decades in 2020, the global economy is on course for a relatively quick rebound. The good news is that vaccination plans with continued policy support are on course to lift the global economy out of the COVID abyss this year. said Michael Taylor, Chief Economist at ACCA.

Raef Lawson, Ph.D., CMA, CPA, IMA vice president of research and policy, noted that the current path to global economic recovery alters from the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, which resulted in a long period of hushed growth as private sector balance sheets were rebuilt through increased savings.

This crisis is different as its root cause is health and not economy. For now, global COVID-19 infections are high relative to vaccination rates, so risks remain significant. But activity indicators, such as orders, showed a strong relative increase for the Middle East and Africa region. There are likely to be permanent changes in the pattern of spending as one of the many long-term economic consequences of the COVID crisis. he further added.

The 2021 Q1 findings also acknowledge that overall confidence and orders have improved in all regions, with the exception of Africa. The fear indices - concern about customers and suppliers going out of business - showed mixed results in this survey but both remain above long run averages, underlining continued heightened uncertainty. Additionally, near-term cost concerns showed an increase, reflecting higher commodity prices and other costs as the global economy recovers.

Middle East Confidence in the Middle East region expanded modestly in Q1 but activity indicators, such as orders, showed a strong relative increase. Confidence was supported by a further rise in oil prices this year, touching US$70 per barrel in March. In addition, some countries in the region including the UAE and Bahrain are well progressive in vaccination schemes. Improved oil revenues and a relaxation from social restrictions suggest an economic recovery. To put that into context, last year, in the Middle East, Africa and Western Europe, over 40% did not expect significant economic recovery until Q4 this year or even later.

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