Abu Dhabi residential sales value could reach AED 140bn in 2026
Abu Dhabi’s residential real estate market is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, with total residential sales value potentially reaching AED 140 billion, according to new projections by Metropolitan Capital Real Estate.
The outlook is driven by improving buyer confidence, continued infrastructure expansion and a shift toward a more mature, end-user-led market. Metropolitan Capital Real Estate forecasts that off-plan sales will be the primary growth driver, with transaction volumes expected to rise between 20 and 50 per cent year-on-year compared to 2025.
Evgeny Ratskevich, Chief Executive Officer of Metropolitan Capital Real Estate, said the market is moving beyond speculative activity toward long-term stability. He noted that growth in 2026 is likely to be driven by end-users and long-term investors attracted by quality of life, disciplined pricing and predictable returns, supported by infrastructure delivery and limited supply in prime locations.
The total value of off-plan residential sales could reach between AED 120 billion and AED 140 billion in 2026, backed by a development pipeline of approximately 11,000 units scheduled for delivery. This rebound follows a slowdown in early 2025 and is supported by improved payment plans, more realistic pricing, population growth and enhanced connectivity, including major transport infrastructure projects.
Demand for off-plan properties is expected to remain focused on key locations such as Yas Island and surrounding areas, Al Reem Island, Al Ghadeer, Masdar City, Saadiyat Island and the Marina District. These areas continue to benefit from strong lifestyle appeal, connectivity and long-term investment fundamentals. Off-plan prices are projected to increase moderately by 3 to 6 per cent during 2026, reflecting market stabilisation rather than rapid price appreciation.
In the secondary market, resale prices across major Abu Dhabi communities are forecast to rise by 3 to 5 per cent in 2026, with average apartment prices ranging between AED 1,130 and AED 1,365 per square foot. Transaction volumes are expected to grow by 10 to 20 per cent, supported by limited ready-unit supply, solid end-user demand and increasing preference for move-in-ready homes in established neighbourhoods.
Buyer demand in the resale segment is increasingly centred on larger apartments, villas and townhouses, as well as developments offering quality finishes, strong infrastructure, schools and transport links. This trend continues to reinforce interest in family-oriented communities.
The ultra-luxury segment is also expected to remain resilient, with stable to modest growth in both sales and rentals. Waterfront villas on Saadiyat and Yas Islands, high-rise penthouses and gated-community mansions are anticipated to see the strongest demand. Market activity in this segment is increasingly driven by lifestyle considerations, long-term residency and wealth preservation, rather than short-term speculation, supported by Abu Dhabi’s reputation as a safe and stable investment destination.
