UAE Business Activity Set to Accelerate in Q3 2026, Says Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered has forecast stronger UAE business activity in the third quarter of 2026, citing resilient non-oil economic performance, robust domestic demand and improving regional trade conditions as key drivers of growth.
In its latest economic analysis released on July 6, the bank said the UAE's economy is expected to gain momentum as regional tensions ease and focus shifts toward the pace of the GCC's economic recovery.
According to the report, the UAE's June S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained above the 50-point threshold, indicating continued expansion in non-oil private sector activity despite the recent period of regional geopolitical uncertainty.
The bank said domestic consumption and investment continued to underpin non-oil growth, while the external sector is expected to strengthen gradually as regional trade flows return to normal.
Rola Abu Manneh, Chief Executive Officer for UAE, Middle East and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, said the latest PMI data highlights the resilience of the UAE's non-oil economy during a challenging regional environment.
She noted that sustained consumer spending and investment continue to support economic growth, while the gradual recovery in external demand is expected to create a more favourable outlook for the third quarter.
Abu Manneh added that these trends reflect the strength of the UAE's economic fundamentals and reinforce its position as a leading regional hub for trade, investment and capital flows.
The report identifies three major factors expected to support business activity during the third quarter: lower oil prices, an improving labour market, and accelerating investment growth as GCC governments continue expanding economic diversification initiatives and strengthening regional trade corridors.
Standard Chartered also noted that the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, together with earlier rerouting of oil exports, has already contributed to a near-complete recovery in the UAE's oil exports, while oil exports across the wider region are recovering at a slower pace.
The bank expects these developments to further support business confidence and economic activity as the UAE continues to build on its diversified, non-oil growth strategy.
