Real Estate & Construction

The residential property market in Dubai is set to witness a significant slowdown in unit handovers over the next two years, with a sharp uptick forecasted for 2027, according to a newly released report by Morgan’s International Realty.

The report, titled Dubai Residential Supply and Delivery Outlook 2025–2027, estimates that only 62% of the anticipated 2025 residential supply will be completed, with just 22,896 out of 37,171 forecasted units likely to be handed over. The situation is projected to worsen in 2026, with only 48% of 71,613 units—approximately 34,740—expected to reach completion.

Completion Rate Remains Below Historical Averages

In total, only 57,636 units are expected to be delivered in 2025 and 2026 out of a projected 108,784, reflecting a combined completion rate of 53%. This underperformance continues a trend seen in recent years. Citing Fitch Ratings, the report notes that from 2022 to 2024, just 97,000 out of 174,000 units were delivered — a 56% completion rate.

Fitch attributes these delivery delays to several structural issues:

• Shortage of qualified contractors and skilled labour

• Project financing delays and inconsistent buyer payment schedules

• Extended sales cycles and shifting developer timelines

Despite these challenges, top-tier developers like Emaar Development are still managing to uphold delivery standards through robust supply chain and project management capabilities.

Record Market Activity Amid Delivery Challenges

Dubai’s real estate sector has experienced an unprecedented boom, driven by strong investor sentiment and population growth. In the past 12 months, the emirate logged 226,000 property transactions worth AED 761 billion, representing a 36% increase in transaction volume and 20% increase in value year-on-year.

However, this surge in demand has placed enormous pressure on construction and delivery timelines, as the number of active developers outpaces the availability of experienced contractors.

Key Handover Areas in 2025 and 2026

According to Morgan’s, the following areas will see the highest concentration of handovers in the next two years:

2025:

1. Studio City

2. Sobha Hartland

3. Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC)

4. Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT)

5. Al Furjan

2026:

1. JVC

2. Azizi Venice

3. Damac Lagoons

4. Business Bay

5. Arjan

Major Supply Spike in 2027

The report forecasts a dramatic rise in residential deliveries in 2027, with 70,537 new units expected—nearly double Dubai’s five-year average annual supply of 35,531 units. Key delivery hotspots for that year include:

1. JVC

2. Business Bay

3. Azizi Venice

4. Dubai Hills Estate

5. Creek Harbour

“JVC remains the most active development zone across all three years, with 16,852 units scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2027,” said Elias Hannoush, Managing Director of Morgan’s International Realty. “This heavy concentration of supply may place downward pressure on prices, potentially leading to temporary oversupply conditions in specific sub-markets.”

Following JVC, Business Bay and Azizi Venice are projected to see 10,127 and 7,860 units completed, respectively.

Market Outlook

Despite near-term delivery constraints, the long-term trajectory of Dubai’s real estate sector remains strong. High investor demand, economic diversification, and large-scale master developments continue to fuel growth. However, developers may need to manage buyer expectations and phase deliveries more strategically to avoid market saturation in certain areas.

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